Brad wrote in October of 2000 about 20 things he felt won’t change in 20 years.
Driving. In an August 1997 demonstration, eight cars carried hands-off “drivers” down a seven-mile stretch of the San Diego Freeway. Self-driving cars have obvious advantages: They allow closer spacing and faster speeds and minimize the danger of human error. But widespread implementation, even by 2020, remains far from probable. Autopilot systems for trains and airplanes fail frequently, requiring trained humans to step in and (usually) avert disaster. If automated car guidance goes awry, it’s unlikely garden-variety drivers will be just as vigilant. After all, if they wanted to carefully monitor the system, why would they buy an autopilot car? Result: Liability concerns will make automakers skittish for the foreseeable future. Minor flourishes, such as range-finding cruise control that prevents tailgating, will be adopted long before autopilots.